Saturday, February 25, 2017

Researcher finds American Nations better predicts county voting behavior than density or state

Kevin Soo's research on predicting county political behavior.

It's been a pleasure having scholars and researchers apply the American Nations paradigm to various research questions. Here's a recent one.

Kevin Soon, a doctoral candidate in cognitive psychology at the University of Pittsburgh, has found that a given county's voting behavior was better predicted by what American Nation it belonged to then by what state it was in or even whether it was densely populated or sparse and rural. Here's his take over at his blog, complete with data visualizations.

Curiously, the size of the county is actually less predictive than the state it is located in, but the regional culture trumps all.

My own take in the 2016 election -- with comparisons to 2008 and 2012 -- can be found here.

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